The economy continues to grow. Inflation has fallen well off its highs. And the labor market continues to hold up well. These are all signs of a “soft landing” scenario for the economy. Some are even starting to see “no landing.”
That simply means that the economy will continue to grow, without a recession, whether mild or severe. And that could mean that consumers will continue to spend, which should be good for one lagging sector.
That sector is shipping. It’s seen poor returns over the past year as consumers have cut back on spending. But in a “no landing” scenario, spending will likely hold up. And that could mean that shipping-related stocks are a bargain today.
Among the shippers, United Parcel Service (UPS) looks like a reasonable value here. It’s shed 15% over the past year, even as revenues have declined by a scant 1%.
Plus, shares trade at 14 times earnings, a reasonable valuation for one of the leading companies in a small oligopoly.
Action to take: Investors may like shares here if they believe the economy will hold up over the next few quarters. Thanks to an increased payout and the knockdown in shares, UPS also pays a 5% dividend right now.
For traders, shares have started to trend up since the summer. Longer-dated call options look attractive here. The March 2025 $145 calls, last trading for about $4.85, could see mid-double-digit returns on a continued uptrend in the months ahead.
Disclosure: The author of this article has no position in the company mentioned here, but may trade after the next 72 hours. The author receives no compensation from any company mentioned in this article.