Credit service provider SoFi Technologies (SOFI) has more than doubled in the past year, rebounding from big losses in 2022. One trader sees shares trending lower in the next two years.
That’s based on the January 16, 2026 $2 puts. With 756 days until expiration, 10,014 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 130, for a 77-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.19 to make the bearish bet.
Shares recently traded just over $9. They would need to drop over $7, or 78 percent, for the options to move in-the-money.
It would also mean shares moving more than 50 percent below their current 52 week low of $4.24.
Even with shares more than doubling this year, SoFi has struggled. Revenues are up 26 percent, but the company has had steep losses of over $400 million. And the profit margin is a negative 20 percent.
Action to take: Investors concerned about the credit market could short shares, as SoFi would likely have a big decline on any market fears in the next two years. If conditions improve, however, investors would likely benefit from continued outperformance.
For now, given the stock’s big run, shares are more likely a sell than a buy.
For traders, the January 2026 puts have two years to play out, and are inexpensive enough that a loss here wouldn’t be huge.
Traders could easily see triple-digit gains, even if shares just moved towards the strike price quickly without getting anywhere near it.
Disclosure: The author of this article has no position in the company mentioned here, but may trade after the next 72 hours. The author receives no compensation from any of the companies mentioned in this article.